ANY hopes Britain can avoid a second wave of coronavirus rely on the rate of infection being reduced – and research suggests Northwich is playing its part.

The Government wants to keep down the R value below one, meaning the number of people that a person infected with Covid-19 can pass it on to.

Optimism surrounding the decision to ease lockdown on Monday was somewhat tempered by the Government’s scientific advisors, who warned the UK’s R value could be one in some areas.

But new analysis shows that Cheshire West, which includes Northwich, has an estimated Rz value of 0.56*.

That figure was calculated over a 14-day period up to May 26 by scientists posting their findings on the crowd-sharing research platform Deckzero.

It is the lowest R value the researchers have estimated for Cheshire West since May 10, when it was 0.54.

Northwich Guardian:

The number rose to 1.33 on May 17, before dropping each day to May 26.

Cheshire West’s highest estimated R value was on April 2, when it stood at 2.65.

Meanwhile, neighbours in Cheshire East also seem to be playing their part in keeping the rate of infection down, with an R value of 0.73 as of May 26.

However, the data only reflects the number of new cases that are confirmed by Public Health England, meaning the number of positive Covid-19 tests.

Any unknown cases of coronavirus, where someone has not been tested and perhaps has no symptoms, are not picked up in the Public Health England data.

There is also a delay in the data being used to update the R value, meaning the number based on a rolling 14-day period is subject to change.

Six more cases were confirmed in Cheshire West on May 27 and a further eight on May 28.

So while the latest estimated R value might seem like good news, no one should be complacent and it is vital to continue social distancing.

Stay at home as much as possible, keep 2m apart from anyone who is not from the same household and regularly wash your hands for 20 seconds.

For more guidance see or to see the latest estimated R value visit

*The estimated values in this story do not replicate the scientific R number.

They are not official or governmental guidance and will not be used in any scenario or situation where the government guidance should be followed including but not limited to policy making by local organisations.